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MBS RECAP: Most Interesting Part of Today is That it Comes Just Before Tomorrow

January 15, 2020
by admin

Today marked a rare mid-week “total dud” in terms of bond market momentum developments. This was made all the more striking by the fact that bonds certainly COULD have developed some sort of reaction strategy based on the particulars of the US/China trade deal signing (it included several new clarifications on the deal). But I’d be the first to admit that trying to connect the dots between those boring trade-related details and actionable decisions in the bond market sounds about as tedious (or even impossible) as any trading motivation I can imagine.

So bonds punted, yet again, and in so doing, carved out their narrowest trading range in more than a week. Treasuries gained modestly ahead of the 3pm CME close, but inconsequentially so. As discussed in the attached video, yields never managed to break below the lower consolidation line from the longer term chart. In other words, bonds are still very range bound and that range is still technically in a narrowing trend.

By the afternoon, it became clear that the most interesting feature of today’s trading is that, when it’s over, we’ll be able to witness tomorrow’s trading! Tomorrow brings the week’s most significant economic data in the form of Retail Sales and the Philly Fed survey. These aren’t necessarily guaranteed to move markets, but they have a much better shot than this morning’s relatively inconsequential data (or apparently the trade deal signing, in retrospect).

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